UFC Fight Night Predictions

For the first time since UFC 4, the Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the Sooner State for tonights UFC Fight Night.  Here are my predictions for the main card bouts:

Lightweight Bout – Nate Diaz vs. Melvin Guillard

After beginning his UFC career on a five fight win streak,  Diaz enters this contest having lost his last two fights with defeats coming at the hands of Clay Guida and Joe Stevenson.  Meanwhile Guillard has won his last two fights, his last being a split decision win over Gleison Thibeau back in June.  Both fighters have a strong stand up game but the difference in this contest will be on the ground.  Diaz is very good at scoring takedowns as well as defending them.  I have a feeling this fight will start with both fighters looking to finish each other off by KO but when that doesn’t happen, Diaz will take things to the ground where he will be able to show off his superior skill set.  My prediction, Diaz by submission in the second round.

Lightweight Bout – Gray Maynard vs. Roger Huerta

Like the main event fight I see this contest playing out in similar fashion.  Both fighters have strong abilities to score points and defeat their opponents with their striking abilities.  But like in the main event, one of the fighters possesses a stronger ground game and that fighter is Maynard.  While Huerta is a very strong fighter which is evidenced by his 22-2 record, Maynard is 8-0 inside the octagon and is very skilled on the ground.  Huerta has shown that he can be taken down regularly in recent fights against Kenny Florian and Clay Guida.  When the fight is not won standing up, Maynard will go to plan b and take it to the mat where he will be able to out wrestle Huerta and score a victory.  My prediction is Maynard by third round submission. 

Welterweight bout – Carlos Condit vs. Jake Ellenberger

This fight was originally supposed to feature the former WEC Welterweight Champion in Condit taking on Chris Lytle but Lytle was forced to withdraw after suffering a serious knee injury back in August.  Stepping into replace Lytle is Ellenberger who will be making his UFC debut this evening.  Condit’s UFC debut was spoiled after losing by split decision to Martin Kampmann back in April.  I look for Condit to come into this fight very focused and with the mentality that his back’s against the wall and because of that I expect him to be at his most dangerous.   While I commend Ellenberger for taking the fight on late notice, the lack of preparation time will be a big obstacle to overcome against an extremely talented fighter like Condit.  My prediction is Condit by TKO in the first round.

Middleweight bout – Nate Quarry vs. Tim Credeur

Credeur comes into this bout with an unblemished 3-0 record inside the octagon but he will undoubtedly face his toughest opponent to date in Quarry.  Despite the three fight winning streak Credeur has shown that his striking skills are lacking.  If the fight goes to the ground I think it could be anyone’s game but I don’t see it getting that far.  With the advantage in striking I look for Quarry to try and put Credeur early.  My prediction is Quarry by first round KO.

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